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Tomasetti and Vogelstein (2015a) find that the incidence of a set of cancertypes is correlated with the total number of normal stem cell divisions. Here,we separate the effects of standing stem cell number (i.e., organ or tissuesize) and per stem cell lifetime replication rate. We show that each has astatistically significant and independent effect on explaining variation incancer incidence over the 31 cases considered by Tomasetti and Vogelstein. Whenconsidering the total number of stem cell divisions and when removing casesassociated with disease or carcinogens, we find that cancer incidence attains aplateau of approximately 0.6% incidence for the cases considered by theseauthors. We further demonstrate that grouping by anatomical site explains mostof the remaining variation in risk between cancer types. This new analysissuggests that cancer risk depends not only on the number of stem cell divisionsbut varies enormously ($\sim$10,000 times) depending on the stem cell'senvironment. Future research should investigate how tissue characteristics(anatomical site, type, size, stem cell divisions) explain cancer incidenceover a wider range of cancers, to what extent different tissues expressspecific protective mechanisms, and whether any differential protection can beattributed to natural selection.

Statistical interpretations and new findings on Variation in Cancer Risk Among Tissues