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According to the IEC 61508 functional safety standard, it is required toestimate the achieved safety integrity of the system due to random hardwarefailures. For a safety function operating in a low demand mode, this measure isthe average probability of a dangerous failure on demand (PFDavg). In thepresent paper, four techniques have been applied to various configurations of acase study: fault tree analyses supported by GRIF/Tree, multi-phase Markovmodels supported by GRIF/Markov, stochastic Petri nets with predicatessupported by GRIF/Petri, and approximate equations (developed by DNV anddifferent from those given in IEC 61508) supported by OrbitSIL. It is shownthat all these methods yield very similar results for PFDavg, taking thecharacteristics required by the standard into account. The choice of a methodshould therefore not be determined by dogmatic assumptions, but should resultof a balance between modelling effort and objectives, given the systemproperties. For this task, a discussion about pros and cons of each method isproposed.

Average probability of a dangerous failure on demand: Different modelling methods, similar results