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Tomasetti and Vogelstein (2015) collected data on 31 different tissue typesand found a correlation of 0.8 between the logarithms of the incidence ofcancer (LCI), and the estimated number of stem cell divisions in those tissues(LSCD). Some of their conclusions however are statistically erroneous. Theirexcess risk score, "ERS" (log10 LCI x log10 LSCD), is non-monotonic under achange of time units for the rates, which renders meaningless the resultsderived from it, including a cluster of 22 "R-tumor" types for which theyconclude, "primary prevention measures are not likely to be very effective".Further, r = 0.8 is consistent with the three orders of magnitude variation inother unmeasured factors, leaving room for the possibility of primaryprevention if such factors can be intervened upon. Further exploration of thedata reveals additional findings: (1) that LCI grows at approximately thesquare root of LSCD, which may provide a clue to the biology; (2) amongdifferent possible combinations of the primary data, the one maximizing thecorrelations with LCI is almost precisely the formula used by Tomasetti andVogelstein to estimate LSCD, giving support to stem cell divisions as anindependent factor in carcinogenesis, while not excluding other such factors.

Statistical Problems in a Paper on Variation In Cancer Risk Among Tissues, and New Discoveries