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We present an improved estimate of the occurrence rate of small planetsorbiting small stars by searching the full four-year Kepler data set fortransiting planets using our own planet detection pipeline and conductingtransit injection and recovery simulations to empirically measure the searchcompleteness of our pipeline. We identified 156 planet candidates, includingone object that was not previously identified as a Kepler Object of Interest.We inspected all publicly available follow-up images, observing notes, andcentroid analyses, and corrected for the likelihood of false positives. Weevaluated the sensitivity of our detection pipeline on a star-by-star basis byinjecting 2000 transit signals into the light curve of each target star. Forperiods shorter than 50 days, we find 0.56 (+0.06/-0.05) Earth-size planets(1-1.5 Earth radii) and 0.46 (+0.07/-0.05) super-Earths (1.5-2 Earth radii) perM dwarf. In total, we estimate a cumulative planet occurrence rate of$2.5\pm0.2$ planets per M dwarf with radii 1-4 Earth radii and periods shorterthan 200 days. Within a conservatively defined habitable zone based on themoist greenhouse inner limit and maximum greenhouse outer limit, we estimate anoccurrence rate of 0.16 (+0.17/-0.07) Earth-size planets and 0.12 (+0.10/-0.05)super-Earths per M dwarf habitable zone. Adopting the broader insolationboundaries of the recent Venus and early Mars limits yields a higher estimateof 0.24 (+0.18/-0.08) Earth-size planets and 0.21 (+0.11/-0.06) super-Earthsper M dwarf habitable zone. This suggests that the nearest potentiallyhabitable non-transiting and transiting Earth-size planets are $2.6\pm0.4$ pcand 10.6 (+1.6/-1.8) pc away, respectively. If we include super-Earths, thesedistances diminish to $2.1\pm0.2$ pc and 8.6 (+0.7/-0.8) pc.

The Occurrence of Potentially Habitable Planets Orbiting M Dwarfs  Estimated from the Full Kepler Dataset and an Empirical Measurement of the  Detection Sensitivity