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We present constraints on the origins of fast radio bursts (FRBs) using largecosmological simulations. We calculate contributions to FRB dispersion measures(DMs) from the Milky Way, from the local Universe, from cosmologicallarge-scale structure, and from potential FRB host galaxies, and then comparethese simulations to the DMs of observed FRBs. We find that the Milky Waycontribution has previously been underestimated by a factor of ~2, and that theforeground-subtracted DMs are consistent with a cosmological origin,corresponding to a source population observable to a maximum redshiftz~0.6-0.9. We consider models for the spatial distribution of FRBs in whichthey are randomly distributed in the Universe, track the star-formation rate oftheir host galaxies, track total stellar mass, or require a centralsupermassive black hole. Current data do not discriminate between thesepossibilities, but the predicted DM distributions for different models willdiffer considerably once we begin detecting FRBs at higher DMs and higherredshifts. We additionally consider the distribution of FRB fluences, and showthat the observations are consistent with FRBs being standard candles, eachburst producing the same radiated isotropic energy. The data imply a constantisotropic burst energy of ~7e40 erg if FRBs are embedded in host galaxies, or~9e40 erg if FRBs are randomly distributed. These energies are 10-100 timeslarger than had previously been inferred. Within the constraints of theavailable small sample of data, our analysis favours FRB mechanisms for whichthe isotropic radiated energy has a narrow distribution in excess of 1e40 erg.

Constraints on the distribution and energetics of fast radio bursts using cosmological hydrodynamic simulations