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In this paper, the new two stage and postseason system of J1 League, the topdivision of professional football in Japan, is simulated. Official regulationdefines that the new postseason from the 2015 season consists of five teamsselected by different principles --- the top three teams by total seasonpoints, and the winning teams of the 1st and 2nd half of the season.  This paper clarifies that there are overlaps within these five teams and theaverage number of teams reaching the postseason is about 3.5. The probabilitythat the postseason is held with 3, 4, and 5 teams are estimated about 0.62,0.35, and 0.03, respectively.  From this result, this paper concludes that the new system of J1 League isbasically a one-stage system, whereas the new system is officially defined as atwo-stage system, due to inappropriate design of the postseason.

Monte-Carlo Simulation of J1 League Postseason System from the 2015 Season