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US public health authorities claim imposing quarantines on healthcare workersreturning from West Africa is incorrect according to science. Their positionsrely upon a set of studies and experience about outbreaks and transmissionmechanisms in Africa as well as assumptions about what those studies implyabout outbreaks in the US. According to this view the probability of a singleinfection is low and that of a major outbreak is non-existent. In a series ofbrief reports we will provide insight into why properties of networks ofcontagion that are not considered in traditional statistics suggest that risksare higher than those assumptions suggest. We begin with the difference betweenthin and fat tailed distributions applied to the number of infected individualsthat can arise from a single one. Traditional epidemiological models considerthe contagion process as described by $R_0$, the average number of new infectedindividuals arising from a single case. However, in a complex interdependentsociety it is possible for the actual number due to a single individual todramatically differ from the average number, with severe consequences for theability to contain an outbreak when it is just beginning. Our analysis raisesdoubts about the scientific validity of policy recommendations of public healthauthorities. We also point out that existing CDC public health policies andactions are inconsistent with their claims.

Why are public health authorities not concerned about Ebola in the US? Part I. Fat tailed distributions