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A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics inSierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. The model describes the dynamic interactionsof the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The modelincorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number ofcontacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contactis either incubating or infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracingprocess.The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data ineach country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time,with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies.These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, andcontact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing