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When assessing the hazard brought by storm surges on the coast, a frequencyanalysis is often conducted. An issue of particular concern is the sea levelrise (SLR), thought to have an impact on maximum water levels. In this study,three gauge stations with long records dating back to the 19th century andlocated along the Polish Baltic Sea coast were analyzed. Different theoreticaldistributions were tested in order to find the best-fitting one. Gumbeldistribution was chosen and estimated for 40-year moving periods. The locationparameter soared in all tide gauges, but the shape parameter was stable inGdansk and decreased in the other two. In effect, theoretical annual maximumwater levels followed the SLR in Gdansk, whereas most extreme storm surges hadno trend in Swinoujscie and a negative one in Kolobrzeg. A possible explanationfor this was investigated (change in atmospheric circulation measured by NAOindex).

Trends in storm surge probability of occurrence along the Polish Baltic Sea coast