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Photovoltaic (PV) power production increased drastically in Europe throughoutthe last years. About the 6% of electricity in Italy comes from PV and for anefficient management of the power grid an accurate and reliable forecasting ofproduction would be needed. Starting from a dataset of electricity productionof 65 Italian solar plants for the years 2011-2012 we investigate thepossibility to forecast daily production from one to ten days of lead timewithout using on site measurements. Our study is divided in two parts: anassessment of the predictability of meteorological variables using weatherforecasts and an analysis on the application of data-driven modelling inpredicting solar power production. We calibrate a SVM model using availableobservations and then we force the same model with the predicted variables fromweather forecasts with a lead time from one to ten days. As expected, solarpower production is strongly influenced by cloudiness and clear sky, in fact weobserve that while during summer we obtain a general error under the 10%(slightly lower in south Italy), during winter the error is abundantly abovethe 20%.

Short-Term Predictability of Photovoltaic Production over Italy