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This paper develops a deterministic differential equations model thatcaptures the H7N9 virus transmission from live poultry to human viapoultry-human contacts in live poultry markets (LPMs). The virus circulationamong live poultry, which happens but is hard to be detected (sincecontaminated live poultry appear to be asymptomatic), is also incorporated inthe model. The time-dependent contact rate between human and live poultry basedon LPMs closing information can be estimated. From data of LPMs closing news,the contact rate function can be easily estimated. This model could serve as arational basis for public health authorities to evaluate the effectiveness ofLPM closing, as well as other interventions according to simple modifications.Without data about daily cases, I also provide suggestions for some of thebasic parameters that would be a useful fitness parameter set for futuresimulation.

A mathematical model about human infections of H7N9 influenza in China with the intervention of live poultry markets closing