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An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting severalcountries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak areunderway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impacton an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation ofthese interventions may inform public health efforts. We use existing data fromLiberia and Sierra Leone to parameterize a mathematical model of Ebola and usethis model to forecast the progression of the epidemic, as well as the efficacyof several interventions, including increased contact tracing, improvedinfection control practices, the use of a hypothetical pharmaceuticalintervention to improve survival in hospitalized patients. Model forecastsuntil Dec. 31, 2014 show an increasingly severe epidemic with no sign of havingreached a peak. Modeling results suggest that increased contact tracing,improved infection control, or a combination of the two can have a substantialimpact on the number of Ebola cases, but these interventions are not sufficientto halt the progress of the epidemic. The hypothetical pharmaceuticalintervention, while impacting mortality, had a smaller effect on the forecastedtrajectory of the epidemic. Near-term, practical interventions to address theongoing Ebola epidemic may have a beneficial impact on public health, but theywill not result in the immediate halting, or even obvious slowing of theepidemic. A long-term commitment of resources and support will be necessary toaddress the outbreak.

Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia