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The generic question is considered: How can we determine the probability ofan otherwise quasirandom event, having been triggered by an external influence?A specific problem is the quantification of the success of techniques totrigger, and hence control, edge-localised plasma instabilities (ELMs) inmagnetically confined fusion (MCF) experiments. The development of suchtechniques is essential to ensure tolerable heat loads on components in largeMCF fusion devices, and is necessary for their development into economicallysuccessful power plants. Bayesian probability theory is used to rigorouslyformulate the problem and to provide a formal solution. Accurate but pragmaticmethods are developed to estimate triggering probabilities, and are illustratedwith experimental data. These allow results from experiments to bequantitatively assessed, and rigorously quantified conclusions to be formed.Example applications include assessing whether triggering of ELMs is astatistical or deterministic process, and the establishment of thresholds toensure that ELMs are reliably triggered.

Distinguishing Cause from Correlation in Tokamak Experiments to Trigger Edge Localised Plasma Instabilities