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We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) andozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changesin ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSIchanges in a small number individual wavelength bands between 176 and 310 nm,operating independently of each other. Additionally, we find that the ozonevaries approximately linearly with changes in the SSI. Using these facts, wepresent a Bayesian formalism for inferring SC SSI changes and uncertaintiesfrom measured SC ozone profiles. Bayesian inference is a powerful,mathematically self-consistent method of considering both the uncertainties ofthe data and additional external information to provide the best estimate ofparameters being estimated. Using this method, we show that, given measurementuncertainties in both ozone and SSI datasets, it is not currently possible todistinguish between observed or modelled SSI datasets using available estimatesof ozone change profiles, although this might be possible by the inclusion ofother external constraints. Our methodology has the potential, using widerdatasets, to provide better understanding of both variations in SSI and theatmospheric response.

Assessing the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone using Bayesian inference