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Obtaining an accurate picture of the current state of the economy isparticularly important to central banks and finance ministries, and ofepidemics to health ministries. There is increasing interest in the use ofsearch engine data to provide such 'nowcasts' of social and economicindicators. However, people may search for a phrase because they independentlywant the information, or they may search simply because many others aresearching for it. We consider the effect of the motivation for searching on theaccuracy of forecasts made using search engine data of contemporaneous socialand economic indicators. We illustrate the implications for forecastingaccuracy using four episodes in which Google Flu Trends data gave accuratepredictions of actual flu cases, and four in which the search dataover-predicted considerably. Using a standard statistical methodology, the Bassdiffusion model, we show that the independent search for information motive wasmuch stronger in the cases of accurate prediction than in the inaccurate ones.Social influence, the fact that people may search for a phrase simply becausemany others are, was much stronger in the inaccurate compared to the accuratecases. Search engine data may therefore be an unreliable predictor ofcontemporaneous indicators when social influence on the decision to search isstrong.

Nowcasting economic and social data: when and why search engine data fails, an illustration using Google Flu Trends