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This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stagemodel for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. Thismethodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate thatit can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success.Future extensions should cover predictions in larger time frames and considerlagged periods. This methodology can be further improved if more informationabout the economic cycles is integrated in the forecasting of default.

A two-stage model for dealing with temporal degradation of credit scoring