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A mathematical model of coastal forest growth is proposed to describe andtest the effects of salinity and inundation in the long-term growth performanceand carbon sequestration of monospecific mangrove ($Rhizophora\; mucronata$)plantation in the Philippines. We used allometry in expressing the mangrovegrowth equation, and stochasticity in scheduling population-level events thatdrive the development of the mangrove forest. Analysis of the model unveils anindex, $\xi$, that could be used in assessing a strategy which could promoteoptimum carbon-stock accumulation in the long run. If initial plot isconfigured such that $\xi > 1$, the $R.\; mucronata$ plantations could achievean above-ground biomass per hectare (AGB) of $1000\mbox{ t/ha}$, or about$500\mbox{ tC/ha}$, in approximately $200$ to $250$ years post planting. Incontrast, the current restoration strategy implemented in the Philippinescorresponds to the case that $\xi <1$. Consequently, the restored mangrovescould not achieve stable growth without the support of costly human assistancesuch as frequent replanting. Rather, through that typical strategy and in theabsence of assistance, the AGB decreases with time until all trees die.Mangrove restoration could therefore be planned strategically to mitigatecostly and wasteful implementation. The proposed index $\xi$ thus serves as anearly indicator for the progress or demise of restored mangroves.

Simulated effects of site salinity and inundation on long-term growth  trajectory and carbon sequestration in monospecific $Rhizophora\; mucronata$  plantation in the Philippines