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The Humber region in the UK is a large and diverse industrial area centredaround oil refining, chemical industries and energy production. However thereis currently a desire to see the region transition towards a more bio-basedeconomy. New bio-related industries are being situated in the region as aconsequence of policy and economic incentives. Many of these industries areconnected through their supply chains, either directly, or by sharing commonsuppliers or customers and the growth or decline of one industry can hence haveimpacts on many others. Therefore an important question to consider is whateffect this movement towards bio-based industry will actually have on theregional economy as a whole. In this paper we develop a general abstractdynamical model for the metabolic interactions of firms or industries. Thisdynamical model has been applied to the Humber region in order to gain a deeperunderstanding of how the region may develop. The model suggests that thetransition to a bio-based economy will occur with oil refining losing itsdominance to bioethanol production and biological chemical production, whilstanaerobic digestion grows as a major source of electricity, in turn driving upthe value of regional waste aggregators and arable farming in the overalleconomy.

A Dynamical Model of the Industrial Economy of the Humber Region