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Goods, styles, ideologies are adopted by society through various mechanisms.In particular, adoption driven by innovation is extensively studied bymarketing economics. Mathematical models are currently used to forecast thesales of innovative goods. Inspired by the theory of diffusion processesdeveloped for marketing economics, we propose, for the first time, a predictiveframework for the mechanism of fashion, which we apply to first names. Analysesof French, Dutch and US national databases validate our modelling approach forthousands of first names, covering, on average, more than 50% of the yearlyincidence in each database. In these cases, it is thus possible to forecast howpopular the first names will become and when they will run out of fashion.Furthermore, we uncover a clear distinction between popularity and fashion:less popular names, typically not included in studies of fashion, may be drivenby fashion, as well.

The diffusion dynamics of choice: From durable goods markets to fashion first names