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How does a new startup drive the popularity of competing websites intooblivion like Facebook famously did to MySpace? This question is of greatinterest to academics, technologists, and financial investors alike. In thiswork we exploit the singular way in which Facebook wiped out the popularity ofMySpace, Hi5, Friendster, and Multiply to guide the design of a new popularitycompetition model. Our model provides new insights into what Nobel LaureateHerbert A. Simon called the "marketplace of attention," which we recast as theattention-activity marketplace. Our model design is further substantiated byuser-level activity of 250,000 MySpace users obtained between 2004 and 2009.The resulting model not only accurately fits the observed Daily Active Users(DAU) of Facebook and its competitors but also predicts their fate four yearsinto the future.

Modeling Website Popularity Competition in the Attention-Activity Marketplace