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We analyze the main arguments that attempt to explain why there is no pointin changing the envelope. Most people confuse estimation and calculation,conditional and unconditional probabilities, random and non-random variables,modelling and reality, chance and uncertainty (or credence), whatever X knownand whatever X unknown, personal and interpersonal estimates. Such confusionssuggest that there would be no point in swapping the envelope. Our analysis isthat if the first envelope is opened, whatever the amount, it is rational andconsistent to think that it is worth changing it. If the first envelope is notopened, it is rational and consistent to believe there is no point in swappingthe envelope.

Why do we change whatever amount we found in the first envelope: the Wikipedia "two envelopes problem" commented