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In this work we describe a non-parametric disease model that links thetemporal change of the prevalence of an infectious disease to the incidence andthe recovery rates. The model is only based on the common epidemiologicalmeasures incidence and recovery rate. As an application, the model is used tocalculate the prevalence of influenza in Germany for a hypothetical birthcohort during 2001 and 2013.

Incidence, recovery and prevalence of infectious diseases: non-parametric disease model and application to influenza in Germany