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In this article, we analyze the application of options contract in specialcommodity supply chain such as fresh agricultural products. This problem isdiscussed in the point of the retailer. When spot market and future market areboth available, we discuss how the retailer chooses the optimal production.Furthermore, overconfidence is introduced to the supply chain of the freshagricultural products, which has not happened before. Then,based on theoverconfidence of the retailer, we explore how overconfidence affects thesupply chain system under different circumstances. At last, we get theconclusion that different overconfidence level has different affection onretailer's optimal ordering quantity and profit.

Research on fresh agriculture product based on overconfidence of the retailer under options and spot markets dominated