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We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections ofmigration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Jointtrajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement ofzero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validationand compare point projections to the projected migration rates from apersistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations' WorldPopulation Prospects, and also to a state of the art gravity model. We alsoresolve an apparently paradoxical discrepancy between growth trends in theproportion of the world population migrating and the average absolute migrationrate across countries.

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates