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This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjectivebeliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as thereference point to balance the current felicity from the optimisticanticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice ofover-optimism or over-pessimism depends on the real chance of success andoptimistic decision makers prefer receiving early information. In the portfoliochoice problem, pessimistic investors tend to trade conservatively, however,they might trade aggressively if they are sophisticated enough to recognise thebiases since low expectation can reduce their fear of loss.

Optimistic versus Pessimistic--Optimal Judgemental Bias with Reference Point