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Global return value estimates of significant wave height and 10-m neutralwind speed are estimated from very large aggregations of archived ECMWFensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time from the period 2003-2012. The upperpercentiles are found to match ENVISAT wind speed better than ERA-Interim(ERA-I), which tends to be biased low. The return estimates are significantlyhigher for both wind speed and wave height in the extratropics and thesubtropics than what is found from ERA-I, but lower than what is reported byCaires and Sterl (2005) and Vinoth and Young (2011). The highest discrepanciesbetween ERA-I and ENS240 are found in the hurricane-prone areas, suggestingthat the ensemble comes closer than ERA-I in capturing the intensity oftropical cyclones. The width of the confidence intervals are typically reducedby 70% due to the size of the data sets. Finally, non-parametric estimates ofreturn values were computed from the tail of the distribution. These directreturn estimates compare very well with Generalized Pareto estimates.

Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From Very Large Forecast Ensembles