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Inferences about the evolution of continuous traits based on reconstructionof ancestral states has often been considered more error-prone than analysis ofindependent contrasts. Here we show that both methods in fact yield identicalestimators for the correlation coefficient and regression gradient ofcorrelated traits, indicating that reconstructed ancestral states are a validsource of information about correlated evolution. We show that the independentcontrast associated with a pair of sibling nodes on a phylogenetic tree can beexpressed in terms of the maximum likelihood ancestral state function at thosenodes and their common parent. This expression gives rise to novel formulae forindependent contrasts for any model of evolution admitting of a locallikelihood function. We thus derive new formulae for independent contrastsapplicable to traits evolving under directional drift, and use simulated datato show that these directional contrasts provide better estimates ofevolutionary model parameters than standard independent contrasts, when traitsin fact evolve with a directional tendency.

Identical inferences about correlated evolution arise from ancestral state reconstruction and independent contrasts