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Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends inobservations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. Whileclimate models capture many processes governing short-term climatefluctuations, they are not expected to simulate the specific timing of thesesomewhat random phenomena - the occurrence of which may impact the realizedtrend. Therefore, to assess model performance, we develop distributions ofprojected temperature trends from a collection of climate models running theIPCC A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate where observed trends of length 5 to15 years fall within the distribution of model trends of the same length. Wefind that current trends lie near the lower limits of the model distributions,with cumulative probability-of-occurrence values typically between 5 percentand 20 percent, and probabilities below 5 percent not uncommon. Our resultsindicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate modelprojections and observed climate behavior under conditions of increasinganthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions.

Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections