English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

I discuss the so-called SuperSpreader epidemic, for which SARS is thecanonical examples (and, perhaps, MERS will be another). I use simulation by anagent-based model as well as the mathematics of multi-type branching-processesto illustrate how the SS epidemic differs from the more familiar uniformepidemic (e.g., caused by influenza). The conclusions may surprise the reader:(a) The SS epidemic must be described by at least two numbers, such as the meanreproductive number (of "secondary" cases caused by a "primary case"), R0, andthe variance of same, call it V0; (b) Even if R0 > 1, if V0 >> R0 theprobability that an infection-chain caused by one primary case goes extinctwithout intervention may be close to one (e.g., 0.97); (c) The SS epidemic mayhave a long "kindling period" in which sporadic cases appear (transmitted fromsome unknown host) and generate a cluster of cases, but the chains peter out,perhaps generating a false sense of security that a pandemic will not occur;(d) Interventions such as isolation (or contact-tracing and secondary caseisolation) may prove efficacious even without driving R0 below one; (e) Theefficacy of such interventions diminishes, but slowly, with increasing V0 atfixed R0. From these considerations, I argue that the SS epidemic has dynamicssufficiently distinct from the uniform case that efficacious public-healthinterventions can be designed even in the absence of a vaccine or other form oftreatment.

Stopping the SuperSpreader Epidemic: the lessons from SARS (with, perhaps, applications to MERS)