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This article focuses, in the context of epidemic models, on rare events thatmay possibly correspond to crisis situations from the perspective of PublicHealth. In general, no close analytic form for their occurrence probabilitiesis available and crude Monte-Carlo procedures fail. We show how recentintensive computer simulation techniques, such as interacting branchingparticle methods, can be used for estimation purposes, as well as forgenerating model paths that correspond to realizations of such events.Applications of these simulation-based methods to several epidemic models arealso considered and discussed thoroughly.

On Computer-Intensive Simulation and Estimation Methods for Rare Event Analysis in Epidemic Models