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Industry reliability rules increasingly require utilities to study andmitigate cascading failure risk in their system. Motivated by this, this paperdescribes how cascading failure risk, in terms of expected blackout size,varies with power system load level and pre-contingency dispatch. We used MonteCarlo sampling of random branch outages to generate contingencies, and a modelof cascading failure to estimate blackout sizes. The risk associated withdifferent blackout sizes was separately estimated in order to separate small,medium, and large blackout risk. Results from $N-1$ secure models of the IEEERTS case and a 2383 bus case indicate that blackout risk does not alwaysincrease with load level monotonically, particularly for large blackout risk.The results also show that risk is highly dependent on the method used forgenerator dispatch. Minimum cost methods of dispatch can result in larger longdistance power transfers, which can increase cascading failure risk.

Changes in Cascading Failure Risk with Generator Dispatch Method and System Load Level