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Since the beginning of satellite observations, the Arctic sea ice extent hasshown a downward trend. The decline has been weaker in the March maximum thanin the September minimum and masked by inter-annual fluctuations. One of theless understood aspects of the sea ice response is the persistence times forfluctuations, which could indicate the dominant physical processes behind thesea ice decline. To determine the fluctuation persistence times, however, it isnecessary to first filter out the dominant effect of the seasonal cycle. In thecurrent study, we thus develop a statistical model, which accurately decomposesthe ice area changes into: (1) a variable seasonal cycle component with aconstant shape and (2) a residual (short term) fluctuation.  We find the persistence time of fluctuations to be only about three weeks,independently from season, which is substantially shorter than previouslyreported. Such short time scale points to the dominance of atmospheric forcing.The shape of the seasonal cycle is surprisingly constant for the wholeobservational record despite the rapid decline. This is in agreement with thesuggestion that the asymmetry of the seasonal cycle is an effect of Arcticland-sea geography, which has not changed with climate change.  The analysis suggest a jump in the annual sea ice area amplitude occurring in2007, from which it has not yet recovered, possibly revealing a permanentamplitude shift. In physical sense, this could imply a shift towards theyounger, thinner and more susceptible ice cover commencing after the immense2007 multi-year ice loss.

Fluctuations and seasonality in the Arctic sea ice area: A sudden regime shift in 2007?