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Mississippi River nutrient loads and water stratification on theLouisiana-Texas shelf contribute to an annually recurring, short-lived hypoxicbottom layer in areas of the northern Gulf of Mexico comprising less than 2% ofthe total Gulf of Mexico bottom area. This paper observes that the NOAA andLUMCON have now published errant predictions of possible record size areas oftemporary bottom water hypoxia ("dead zones") three times since 2005, in 2008,2011, and 2013 and that the LUMCON predictions of the area of hypoxic bottomwater average 31% higher than the actual measured hypoxic areas from 2006 to2014. These systematically high predictions depend on the assumption that thesusceptibility of the Gulf of Mexico to forming hypoxic areas in response tonutrient loading has been relatively constant since 2001, though thesusceptibility has been occasionally adjusted upward in different models. Ithas been previously suggested that tropical storms in a given year that occuron the Louisiana-Texas shelf between the peak nutrient loading in spring andformation of the hypoxic zone in summer can mitigate the size of the hypoxiczone that year through mixing of stratified well oxygenated lighter and warmersurface layers and oxygen depleted heavier and cooler bottom layers. This papersuggests several reasons why the Louisiana-Texas shelf may be systematicallygrowing less susceptible to a given level of nutrient loading over time so thatpredictions based on the measured area of temporary bottom water hypoxia priorto 2006 tend to be too big in recent years.

Predictions Wrong Again on Dead Zone Area -- Gulf of Mexico Gaining Resistance to Nutrient Loading