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We have shown that commonly used model-fitting methods fail when theunderlying ecological system is chaotic. Importantly, Hartig & Dormann[arXiv:1305.3544] suggest an alternative method that is able to overcome thisproblem for the logistic model when the "true model" is known. This isencouraging, however the more relevant test is of the method when the "truemodel" is unknown, as it always is for real ecosystems. By making a smallmodification to the "true model," we find that the suggested method providesinaccurate forecasts and severely biased estimates of the ecological dynamics.In contrast, a model-free approach is able to provide accurate forecasts and auseful foundation for ecological understanding without the burdensomeassumption of a "true model."

Reply to Hartig et al. [arXiv:1305.3544]: The "true model" myth