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A Bayesian approach is adopted to analyze the sequence of seismic events andtheir magnitudes near Jo\~ao C\^amara which occurred mainly from 1983 to 1998along the Samambaia fault. In this work, we choose a Bayesian model for theprocess of occurrence times conditional on the observed magnitude valuesfollowing the same procedure suggested by Stavrakakis and Tselentis (1987). Themodel parameters are determined on the basis of historical and physicalinformation. We generate posterior samples from the joint posteriordistribution of the model parameters by using a variant of theMetropolis-Hastings algorithm. We use the results in a variety of ways,including the construction of pointwise posterior confidence bands for theconditional intensity of the point process as a function of time, as well as, aposterior distribuition as a function of the mean of occurrence per unit time.

Correla\c{c}\~ao de longa-dura\c{c}\~ao e anal\'ise bayesiana da  evolu\c{c}\~ao temporal dos terremotos ao longo da falha de samambaia,  nordeste do brasil