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The sharp decline in Ireland's economic performance in recent years hascoincided with a recent fall in asylum applications. Simultaneously countriessuch as Switzerland are seeing increases in asylum numbers with evidence forgreater numbers of Nigerian applicants, a group that have for some time beenthe largest nationality group applying in Ireland. A possible reason for thisshift in asylum seeker preference is the general economic conditions hereversus those in other European countries. In this paper we investigate whetherthis belief holds water. We model asylum applications as a function of GDPusing a time varying parameter multiplicative growth model. Our results showthere is an economic basis for asylum seeker preferences. We further show thereis no regional basis for asylum seekers' expectation of a more favourable claimin the 'developed box' in central Europe as compared to countries on theso-called 'periphery'.

The Statistical and Econometric Analysis of Asylum Application Trends and their relationship to GDP in the EEA