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Bayesian inference systems should be able to explain their reasoning tousers, translating from numerical to natural language. Previous empirical workhas investigated the correspondence between absolute probabilities andlinguistic phrases. This study extends that work to the correspondence betweenchanges in probabilities (updates) and relative probability phrases, such as"much more likely" or "a little less likely." Subjects selected such phrases tobest describe numerical probability updates. We examined three hypotheses aboutthe correspondence, and found the most descriptively accurate of these three tobe that each such phrase corresponds to a fixed difference in probability(rather than fixed ratio of probabilities or of odds). The empirically derivedphrase selection function uses eight phrases and achieved a 72% accuracy incorrespondence with the subjects' actual usage.

How Much More Probable is "Much More Probable"? Verbal Expressions for Probability Updates