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Secular trends of the incidence of NCDs are especially important as theyindicate changes of the risk profile of a population. The article describes amethod for detecting secular trends in the incidence from a series ofprevalence data - without requiring costly follow-up studies or running aregister. After describing the theory, the method is applied to the incidenceof diabetes in Denmark.

Surveillance of the Incidence of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) with Prevalence Data: Theory and Application to Diabetes in Denmark