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The family Nymphalidae is the largest family within the true butterflies andhas been used to develop hypotheses explaining evolutionary interactionsbetween plants and insects. Theories of insect and hostplant dynamics predictaccelerated diversification in some scenarios. We investigated whetherphylogenetic uncertainty affects a commonly used method (MEDUSA, modellingevolutionary diversity using stepwise AIC) for estimating shifts indiversification rates in lineages of the family Nymphalidae, by extending themethod to run across a random sample of phylogenetic trees from the posteriordistribution of a Bayesian run. We found that phylogenetic uncertainty greatlyaffects diversification rate estimates. Different trees from the posteriordistribution can give diversification rates ranging from high values to almostzero for the same clade, and for some clades both significant rate increase anddecrease were estimated. Only three out of 13 significant shifts found on themaximum credibility tree were consistent across more than 95% of the trees fromthe posterior: (i) accelerated diversification for Solanaceae feeders in thetribe Ithomiini; (ii) accelerated diversification in the genus Charaxes, and(iii) deceleration in the Danaina. By using the binary speciation andextinction model (BISSE), we found that a hostplant shift to Solanaceae or acodistributed character is responsible for the increase in diversification ratein Ithomiini, and the result is congruent with the diffuse cospeciationhypothesis. A shift to Apocynaceae is not responsible for the slowdown ofdiversification in Danaina. Our results show that taking phylogeneticuncertainty into account when estimating diversification rate shifts is ofgreat importance, and relying on the maximum credibility tree alone potentiallycan give erroneous results.

Diversity dynamics in Nymphalidae butterflies: Effect of phylogenetic uncertainty on diversification rate shift estimates