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In earlier work, we introduced flexible inference and decision-theoreticmetareasoning to address the intractability of normative inference. Here,rather than pursuing the task of computing beliefs and actions with decisionmodels composed of distinctions about uncertain events, we examine methods forinferring beliefs about mathematical truth before an automated theorem provercompletes a proof. We employ a Bayesian analysis to update belief in truth,given theorem-proving progress, and show how decision-theoretic methods can beused to determine the value of continuing to deliberate versus taking immediateaction in time-critical situations.

Reasoning, Metareasoning, and Mathematical Truth: Studies of Theorem Proving under Limited Resources