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This article is a commentary on the verdict of the "L'Aquila Six", the groupof bureaucrats and scientists tried by an Italian court as a result of theirpublic statements in advance of the quake of 2009 Apr. 6 that left the city inruins and cause more than 300 deaths. It was not the worst such catastrophicevent in recent Italian history, but it was one of -- if not the -- worstfailures of risk assessment and preventive action. The six were found guiltyand condemned by a first level of the justice system to substantial prisonterms. The outcry provoked by the verdict in the world press and theinternational scientific community has fueled the already fiery debate overwhether the six should have been tried at all. They have been presented asmartyrs to science being treated as scapegoats by a scientifically illiteratejustice system and inflamed local population for not being able to perform theimpossible (predict the event). Petitions of support have been drafted andsigned by thousands of working scientists and technical experts in many fieldsexcoriating the court and the country for such an outrage against thescientific community, often accompanied by ominous warnings about the chillingeffect this will have on the availability of expert advice in times of need. Mypurpose in this essay is to explain why this view of the events of the trial ismisguided, however well intentioned, and misinformed.

"But since the affairs of men rest still uncertain, let's reason with  the worst that may befall": Probability, risk, and the 2009 L'Aquila  Earthquake