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The frequent outbreak of severe foodborne diseases warns of a potentialthreat that the global trade networks could spread fatal pathogens. The globaltrade network is a typical overlay network, which compounds multiple standalonetrade networks representing the transmission of a single product and connectingthe same set of countries and territories through their own set of tradeinteractions. Although the epidemic dynamic implications of overlay networkshave been debated in recent studies, some general answers for the overlay ofmultiple and diverse standalone networks remain elusive, especially therelationship between the heterogeneity and diversity of a set of standalonenetworks and the behavior of the overlay network. In this paper, we establish ageneral analysis framework for multiple overlay networks based on diversitytheory. The framework could reveal the critical epidemic mechanisms beyondoverlay processes. Applying the framework to global trade networks, we foundthat, although the distribution of connectivity of standalone trade networkswas highly heterogeneous, epidemic behavior on overlay networks is moredependent on cooperation among standalone trade networks rather than on a fewhigh-connectivity networks as the general property of complex systems withheterogeneous distribution. Moreover, the analysis of overlay trade networksrelated to 7 real pathogens also suggested that epidemic behavior is notcontrolled by high-connectivity goods but that the actual compound mode ofoverlay trade networks plays a critical role in spreading pathogens. Finally,we study the influence of cooperation mechanisms on the stability of overlaynetworks and on the control of global epidemics. The framework provides ageneral tool to study different problems on overlay networks.

Cooperating epidemics of foodborne diseases with diverse trade networks