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The variation in the Arctic sea ice is dominated by the seasonal cycle withlittle inter-annual correlation. Though the mean sea ice area has decreasedsteadily in the period of satellite observations, a dramatic transition in thedynamics was initiated with the record low September ice area in 2007. Thechange is much more pronounced in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle than inthe annual mean ice area. The shape of the seasonal cycle is surprisinglyconstant for the whole observational record despite the general decline. Asimple explanation, independent of the increased greenhouse warming, for theshape of the seasonal cycle is offered. Thus the dramatic climate change inarctic ice area is seen in the amplitude of the cycle and to a lesser extendthe annual mean and the summer ice extend. The reason why the climate change ismost pronounced in the amplitude is related to the rapid reduction in perennialice and thus a thinning of the ice. The analysis shows that a tipping point forthe arctic ice area was crossed in 2007.

Robust seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice area through tipping point in amplitude