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We compare the current LIGO/Virgo upper limits on double compact objectvolumetric merger rates with our theoretical predictions. Our optimistic modelsare a factor of 3 below the existing upper limits for massive BH-BH systemswith total mass 50-70 Msun, suggesting that a small increase in observationalsensitivity may bring the first detections. The LIGO/Virgo gravitational waveobservatories are currently being upgraded to advanced design sensitivity. If asizeable population of BH-BH binaries is detected, the maximum total binarymass of this population will discriminate between two general families ofcommon envelope models. If no binaries are detected, the new upper limits willprovide astrophysically useful information about the environment and physicalprocesses (e.g., metallicity of host galaxies or BH natal kicks) crucial to theformation of binaries containing black holes. For NS-NS systems, our predictedrates are 3 orders of magnitude below the current upper limits; even ifadvanced instruments reach their design sensitivities (factors of 10 times indistance, and 1,000 times in volumetric rate) the detection of NS-NS systems isnot assured. However, we note that although our predicted NS-NS merger ratesare consistent with estimates derived from Galactic NS-NS binaries and shortGRBs, they are on the low side of these empirical estimates.

Comparison of LIGO/Virgo upper limits with predicted compact binary merger rates