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High-energy accelerators are large projects funded by public money, developedover the years and constructed via major industrial contracts both in advancedtechnology and in more conventional domains such as civil engineering andinfrastructure, for which they often constitute one-off markets. Assessingtheir cost, as well as the risk and uncertainty associated with this assessmentis therefore an essential part of project preparation and a justifiedrequirement by the funding agencies. Stemming from the experience with largecircular colliders at CERN, LEP and LHC, as well as with the Main Injector, theTevatron Collider Experiments and Accelerator Upgrades, and the NOvA Experimentat Fermilab, we discuss sources of cost variance and derive cost riskassessment methods applicable to the future linear collider, through its twotechnical approaches for ILC and CLIC. We also address disparities in cost riskassessment imposed by regional differences in regulations, procedures andpractices.

Assessing Risk in Costing High-energy Accelerators: from Existing Projects to the Future Linear Collider