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We propose a hybrid forecast based on extended discrete grey Markov andvariable dimension Kalman model and show that our hybrid model can improve muchmore the performance of forecast than traditional grey Markov and Kalmanmodels. Our simulation results are given to demonstrate that our hybridforecast method combined with degree of grey incidence are better than greyMarkov and ARFIMA model or Kalman methods.

A Hybrid Forecast of Exchange Rate based on ARFIMA,Discrete Grey-Markov, and Fractal Kalman Model