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We present research on developing models that forecast traffic flow andcongestion in the Greater Seattle area. The research has led to the deploymentof a service named JamBayes, that is being actively used by over 2,500 usersvia smartphones and desktop versions of the system. We review the modelingeffort and describe experiments probing the predictive accuracy of the models.Finally, we present research on building models that can identify current andfuture surprises, via efforts on modeling and forecasting unexpectedsituations.

Prediction, Expectation, and Surprise: Methods, Designs, and Study of a Deployed Traffic Forecasting Service