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There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared byAngus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuousannual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individualeconomies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The behaviorbefore 1940 and after 1950 can be accurately (R2 from 0.7 to 0.99) approximatedby linear time trends. The corresponding slopes of regressions lines before andafter the break differ by a factor of 4 (Switzerland) to 19 (Spain). We haveextrapolated the early trends into the second interval and obtained much lowerestimates of real GDP per capita in 2011: from 2.4 (Switzerland) to 5.0 (Japan)times smaller than the current levels. When the current linear trends areextrapolated into the past, they intercept the zero line between 1908(Switzerland) and 1944 (Japan). There is likely an internal conflict betweenthe estimating procedures before 1940 and after 1950. A reasonable explanationof the discrepancy is that the GDP deflator in developed countries has beenhighly underestimated since 1950. In the USA, the GDP deflator isunderestimated by a factor of 1.4. This is exactly the ratio of the interestrate controlled by the Federal Reserve and the rate of inflation. Hence, theFederal Reserve actually retains its interest rate at the level of true priceinflation when corrected for the bias in the GDP deflator.

Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated