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A/H1N1 epidemic data from Istanbul, Turkey during the period June2009-February 2010 is analyzed with SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed)model. The data consist of the daily adult hospitalization numbers andfatalities recorded in various state hospitals serving an adult population ofabout 1.5-2 million. June 2009-August 2009 period corresponds to the initialstage of the epidemic where the hospitalization rate is nearly %100 and it isexcluded from further consideration. The analysis covers the September2009-February 2010 period, the total number of hospitalizations and fatalitiesbeing respectively 869 and 46. It is shown that the maximum correlation betweenthe number of fatalities and hospitalizations occur with a time shift of 9 daysand the proportionality constant is {\delta}=0.0537. The SEIR epidemic model isapplied to the data by back-shifting the number of fatalities. Thedetermination of the best fitting model is based on the L2 norms of errorsbetween the model and the data and the errors are around %10 and %2.6 for thenumber of hospitalizations and fatalities, respectively. The parameters in themodel are I0, {\eta}, {\epsilon} and {\beta}, where I0 is the percentage ofpeople infected initially, {\eta} and {\epsilon} are related to the inverses ofthe infection and incubation periods and {\beta}/{\eta} is the representativeof the basic reproduction number. These parameters are determined as{\eta}=0.09 (1/{\eta} =11.11days), I0=10^-7.4, {\epsilon}=0.32 (1/{\epsilon}=3.125 days), {\beta}=0.585, {\beta}/{\eta}=6.5.

A Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (Seir) Model For The 2009-2010 A/H1N1 Epidemic In Istanbul