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This paper explores an approach to Bayesian sample size determination inclinical trials. The approach falls into the category of what is often called"proper Bayesian", in that it does not mix frequentist concepts with Bayesianones. A criterion for a "successful trial" is defined in terms of a posteriorprobability, its probability is assessed using the marginal distribution of thedata, and this probability forms the basis for choosing sample sizes. Weillustrate with a standard problem in clinical trials, that of establishingsuperiority of a new drug over a control.

On an Approach to Bayesian Sample Sizing in Clinical Trials